Skills Forecasting for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution, a term used to describe recent rapid technological advancements, is having a significant impact on economies, labour markets and individuals around the world. New technology is generating new jobs, which has the potential to lift millions of people out of poverty and enable countries to ‘fast track’ their development and recover from the impacts of COVID-19. At the same time, millions of jobs are changing significantly, and some will become obsolete, due to technological advances including automation and artificial intelligence. There is a risk that people without access to technology and skills training, including women, people with disabilities, and marginalised groups, will be left behind, and that inequality will widen.

Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) systems have an important role to play in enabling countries to embrace the opportunities digitalisation presents, by reskilling and upskilling workers in response to changing labour market needs. TVET systems will need to become more flexible and quicker to adapt, as the skills demanded by industry will change rapidly. Training providers, individuals and governments will need access to reliable data on future skills needs, to enable them to make informed training choices, and avoid skills mismatches.

For ASEAN member states, technological advancements and digitalisation bring significant opportunities. To harness these opportunities and mitigate potential risks, ASEAN has developed a consolidated strategy on the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The ASEAN TVET Council has created a work plan to inform and shape the changes that will need to be made by TVET systems in ASEAN countries. Item 1.1 on the ASEAN TVET Council Workplan is: “Enhanced labour market information systems and skills forecasting for the Fourth Industrial Revolution and other emerging trends”.

Skills forecasting involves analysing various data sources to anticipate future skill needs. It enables governments to make informed policy decisions on training and budget allocations for training that meet the needs of the labour market and allows individuals to make informed choices about the courses they undertake. Enhanced skills forecasting will help policymakers across ASEAN to better understand and prepare for their future labour market and skills development needs.

Skills forecasting can also support women, people with disabilities and marginalised groups, as it can enable governments to provide targeted skills training to groups that are most at risk of being left behind by digitalisation. Skills forecasting provides data on needs in new and emerging industries as well as male- dominated occupations, e.g. engineering and construction. This in turn can enable a greater emphasis on skills development for women and minority groups.

This short course will focus on conducting skills forecasting for the Fourth Industrial Revolution and other emerging trends in ASEAN. It will facilitate an exchange of expertise and lessons learned between ASEAN countries and Australia, including between the different cohorts.

METHODOLOGY

This short course consists of a 1-day online briefing/workshop followed by a 2-week course in Australia. The short course will be offered twice.

The short course will support the following elements of the ASEAN TVET Council work plan:

• Outcome 1.1, Enhanced labour market information systems and skills forecasting for the Fourth Industrial Revolution and other emerging trends

• Outcome 3, Enhanced capacity of TVET personnel (political decision-makers, managers, teachers and trainers at schools and in companies).

COURSE OBJECTIVES

This short course will enable the participants to exchange expertise on skills forecasting. The participants will also have an opportunity to connect with Australian government agencies and hear from experts in the field.

• Identify ways to support TVET regional mobility to strengthen the comparability of selected sectors in ASEAN and reduce the gap between the demand and supply in skills
• Explore options to strengthen labour market information systems in ASEAN member states towards achieving greater labour mobility across ASEAN member states
• Study and document best practices in assessing labour market needs and employment opportunities, linking with skills requirements of growing industries

• Identify ways to obtain and use quality labour market information, including skills forecasting to support lifelong learning initiatives (ASEAN HRD Roadmap)

• Explore ways to enhance capacities of governments, educational institutions, business sector and other stakeholders to conduct skills forecasts to promote labour market-oriented education and trainings (ASEAN HRD Roadmap)

• Explore effective models of cooperation or sharing of learning management information between all stakeholders, including the private sector

• Benchmark the Australian approaches for the workforce to move between the labour market and learning institutions to respond to changes in labour market demand (skills development, re-skilling and up-skilling)

DATE AND LOCATION

The final delivery dates and locations will be determined in consultation with DFAT and the provider selected through an open tender process. The plan is to deliver this course twice. The proposed schedule is:

Group 1

• Online briefing: March 2023 (date TBC)
• In-Australia course: May 2023

Group 2

• Online briefing: April 2023 (date TBC)
• In-Australia course: June 2023

Course participant profile
Each course will be delivered to 25 participants. The participants will be selected through a merit-based assessment process.

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